The economic forecast is a prediction of economic outcomes based on various methodologies. The methodologies are used by professional economists and are largely scientific in nature, as they use statistical methods to form and estimate relationships between economic, demographic, and other variables and predict their future values.
The forecasts can be either quantitative or qualitative. Quantitative economic forecasts, for example, take into account the behavior of specific time series variables and their historical patterns to produce a projection of what they might look like in the future. Examples include forecasts of GDP, inflation, and consumer prices.
Qualitative economic forecasts, on the other hand, rely on the judgment of experts to create predictions of an economy’s performance. Experts may take into account their own opinions and views when preparing economic forecasts, which can be published as a report or an article. They also consider risks, which are events or conditions that could cause the results to differ from their initial estimates.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects global growth to slow to just 3.2 percent this year and next, well below the post-pandemic average. Growth is expected to accelerate slightly in advanced economies but slow further in emerging markets and developing countries. Downside risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside, with rising trade barriers and elevated policy uncertainty likely to weigh on growth.